The Frankenstein Government could be back, since the PP continues to sink into depression and cannibalism: so close to Vox and so far from the absolute majority. The extrapolation of the result of Castilla y León in a Spanish key would generate a Congress of Deputies more devilish than the current one and without the conservative bloc, structured by PP and Vox, getting close enough to the majority of the Chamber to configure a Government alternative. His ceiling would always remain below 170 seats and without enough allies to reach the magic figure of 176.
Naturally, the Spanish correlation that emerges from the result of 13-F is only a speculative hypothesis based on what the historical patterns of vote variation have been between the regional elections in Castilla y León and the general elections in Spain as a whole. . From there, the PP is usually placed on the Spanish stage up to nine points below its vote in the Castilian-Leonese community, which would leave the popular ones today with just over 22% of the vote. And that in the event that they came out unscathed from the Madrid slaughter.
The PP prevails in the elections of Castilla y León but Mañueco will have to govern with Vox
The right would have less than 170 seats and the left could be almost 40 short of the absolute majority in Congress
The PSOE, on the other hand, moves within a broader voting range. Historically, it has almost always obtained better results in Spain as a whole than in a conservative fiefdom like Castilla y León. But that changed with the new electoral cycle of the last decade. Hence, his estimated vote ranges between 26%, in the worst case, and 30%, in the best. In fact, the Socialists obtained on 13-F a percentage of the vote similar to what they had already garnered in that community in the two general elections of 2019.
Of the rest of the formations at the state level, Ciudadanos has tended to improve its vote in the general elections compared to the regional ones, but that was before the debacle of 10-N, so currently the logical thing is that it reissue its result downwards in Castilla y León and aspire to just over 3% in the whole of Spain. In turn, United We Can always improve the regional vote in the general elections, but the dismal result of 13-F would leave its current estimate below 11%.
Finally, Vox has registered such a rapid growth that it does not allow us to infer a precise correlation between the regional and legislative ones. He lost steam in the 2019 regional elections compared to the April general elections, but multiplied his regional vote by three in the November legislative elections. And 13-F even obtained a somewhat higher percentage (17.6%). For this reason, and in light of the global suffrage of the center and the right in Spain (around 44%), it is not an exaggeration to attribute to Vox a minimum electoral quota of 18%. Everything will depend (and also for the PP) on whether Cs suffers a sudden death or prolongs his agony and retains a contingent of unconditional supporters.
Popular crisis: a shift of the orphan vote towards the ultras would leave PP and Vox tied around 21% and with a total of 172 deputies
In any case, the parliamentary horizon that emerges from the Castilian-Leonese elections draws an ungovernable Spain (or almost). The first scenario, with a fall of the PSOE and Podemos well below their 2019 result, would leave the left (including Más País) with just 140 seats and 36 more than one half of the Chamber. The current majority of the investiture (with Esquerra and PNV as main companions) would be reduced to 167 seats. And it could reach 173 with the regionalist deputies and the Emptied Spain. But the vote against the deputies of Junts and the CUP would block any investiture, since the conservative bloc would also gather 167 seats, which could reach 173 with the support of the regionalists.
Only a monumental collapse of the left, combined with a transfer of the entire orphan vote from the right to Vox (which would tie with the PP around 21% of the vote), would take the conservative bloc to 172 deputies. And even so, it would require the support of four more seats, which predictably could only come from center regionalism and Empty Spain.
The second scenario –based on an improvement in the PSOE vote in the general elections in accordance with the average pattern of the last two decades– would improve the options of the left (which would add 148 seats), but would turn governance into an exercise almost circus Facing a right that would add 160 deputies, the current coalition would also need Bildu (together with the PNV and ERC) to reach 174 seats. The majority (absolute or relative) would require the support –or at least the abstention– of the regionalists of the Canary Islands and Cantabria or of the deputies of the Emptied Spain.
Finally, a third scenario built from a regrouping of the vote to the left of the PSOE based on the results of 2019 (the hypothetical platform led by Yolanda Díaz) would facilitate the formation of majorities somewhat more, although governance would continue to require more actors that nowadays. The left would add 152 seats in that case (six less than now compared to the 159 that PP, Vox and Cs would gather), which would not ensure an absolute majority even with the participation of ERC, PNV and Bildu. To reach half plus one of the Chamber –or at least deactivate an alternative majority– the support or abstention of any of the regionalist deputies would be needed.
Frankenstein government? The metaphor falls short. The Spanish political struggle could perfectly include, together with the counterparts of the monster created by Mary Shelley, those of the werewolf or those of Count Dracula, the latter in the role of voracious traffickers of majorities.
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