However you look at it, the resounding victory of the Socialist Party in Portugal is good news for the PSOE and for Pedro Sánchez. True, extrapolations are always risky. The electoral results of Portugal cannot be automatically transferred to Spain, but they tell us about the sign of time. Let’s look closely: in Europe extensions are being granted to those who rule. In Italy, faced with the impossibility of agreeing on a new president of the Republic, since the election of Mario Draghi made it necessary to remake the government, the parties have begged the outgoing president, Sergio Matarella, for a new mandate. The conclave of a thousand voters that elects the Italian head of state voted on Friday for the continuation of Mattarella with much relief. In Portugal, the polls have corrected the polls and have placed the outgoing prime minister, the socialist António Costa, on the verge of an absolute majority, with a strong punishment for the two leftist parties (Bloc of the Left and the Portuguese Communist Party) that in December blocked the approval of the 2022 budget. Above all, the Portuguese have voted for stability.
A year ago now, the Portuguese also revalidated by a large majority the mandate of the President of the Republic, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, a center-right politician with a very independent profile. In the current European circumstances, it should not surprise us that French President Emmanuel Macron gets re-election in the presidential elections next April. Is Germany the exception? Maybe not. Social Democrat Olaf Scholz was Finance Minister in Angela Merkel’s last government and many observers pointed out that he was the most ‘Merkelian’ of the candidates who ran in the federal elections last September. The Germans would have gladly voted for a new mandate for Merkel and in her absence they gave a relative majority to the Social Democratic candidate with a profile closer to the chancellor, denying the polls that predicted a youthful victory for the Greens. The Germans voted for government stability. The Italian conclave has just opted for government stability. And the Portuguese have also voted for government stability. In the plains of Ukraine it is very cold this winter and the pipes of the gas pipelines that come from Siberia can freeze.
Celebration of the socialist victory at the PS headquarters
Good news for Sánchez, indeed. In the first place, the polls have denied the polls, which predicted almost a tie between the Socialist Party and the Social Democratic Party, the main opposition force. That wake-up call from the polls to the polls takes on a certain significance in a Spain in which between three and five polls with vote projections are published every week. An insane exercise in political propaganda that seeks to establish the idea that the current government is
provisional. The demand for greater rigor in the surveys is necessary in Spain. It is quite possible that the Portuguese soundings were well done. They detected the wear and tear of the outgoing Executive and identified a current of sympathy in favor of the opposition leader, Rui Rio, but the polls have corrected that diagnosis. Faced with the possibility of a tied and unstable Portugal, left-wing voters have concentrated around the PS. More people have turned out to vote and the desire for stability in times of turmoil has prevailed.
Sánchez and the PSOE will be able to reclaim the Social Democratic seal today, the axis on which the last party congress revolved, last October. Social democracy as a reassuring sign in a Europe very disturbed by the exasperating continuity of the epidemic, despite the fact that the infections are now milder, due to the return of inflation, and due to the bad omens coming from the East. In times of trouble there is no need to move, said Saint Ignatius of Loyola. The Portuguese, who are most devoted to Saint Anthony of Lisbon (also known as Saint Anthony of Padua) have been faithful to the Ignatian motto. To be worthy of a continuing current like the one that the socialist Costa has harvested in Portugal, Sánchez must step more on the ground, cultivate a presidential profile and better connect with the less ideological electorate. The PSOE has been working in this direction for a few months. The results of Portugal will be read by Sánchez’s current entourage as a confirmation of his line. The Portuguese result invites Sánchez to be more ‘conservative’ and more friendly with NATO, controlling, yes, the tone of the Defense Minister, Margarita Robles, especially the tone. In two weeks we will see if the regional elections in Castilla y León confirm this diagnosis.
Portuguese voters have severely punished the ‘left of the left’ that last December blocked the approval of the budgets and led the country to elections. The Left Bloc and the PCP, which were not part of the government, feared that António Costa would deify himself with European funds and put parliamentary demands on him that led to a breakup. Instead of voting for a shift to the left, voters have voted for stability. With the current European panorama, it does not seem very eccentric. United We Can, which is part of the Government of Spain and that in this legislature has never voted against the government majority, should take note of the poor result of its Portuguese colleagues. Special attention to the young leadership group of Podemos, who is always in a hurry and who, deep down, considers Yolanda Díaz to be too ‘moderate’, although they avoid colliding publicly with her, given her current popularity. The message from the Portuguese ballot boxes is clear: after two years of epidemic and with the risk of war on the other end of the continent, most people are not in for “turns”. The same lesson is useful for the other partners of the Government, especially for the Republican Left that this week will have to make an important decision on the labor reform. Is it convenient for the ERC to vote against a reform that is supported by the majority of its voters? A few years ago, the leaders of Esquerra traveled to Lisbon with some frequency.
If Rui Rio, head of the opposition, had won the elections, we would now write that the Portuguese have rewarded a moderate right, far from the postulates of
the extreme right, with a great sense of responsibility during the epidemic. Since Mr. Rio has been thirteen points below the Socialists, many leaders of the Popular Party will think that there is no other more correct line than to relentlessly beat up the Government, lest it gain a foothold. The Portuguese result will give encouragement to the hard line of the PP, although António Costa’s great victory sends another message: in a situation of great uncertainty, the opposition must have a lot of rennet and maturity to be able to win. This is the message that José María Aznar, with his proverbial antipathy, wanted to convey last Saturday at his rally in Castilla y León: it is not enough to advance regional elections for tactical reasons, it is necessary to explain very well what the alternative is . You have to ‘incarnate’ the alternative. Pablo Casado today is not in that phase.
Finally, the extreme right. The Chega (Basta) party has achieved third position in Portugal with 7% of the vote, five points below the 12% obtained by its leader, André Ventura, in the presidential elections a year ago. Its result is not spectacular, but it is significant and is highlighted by the collapse of the ‘left of the left’. There is a deeply irritated sector of society that sees the extreme right as a good outlet. A valve more than an alternative. Chega’s result is not bad news for Vox.
Portugal has spoken clearly. Let’s extrapolate, yes, but carefully.
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